Russia is actively preparing for a large-scale offensive on Pokrovsk, and Ukrainian counterattacks will not thwart these plans.
Analyst David Ax from Forbes stated this. He added that on Sunday, Ukrainian forces managed to regain some positions near Velyka Novosilka in the southern Donetsk region, but this area is not critically important for either side. The main strategic interest for the Russian Federation is focused on capturing Pokrovsk, which is located just a few kilometers from the front line.
The Russian army is already approaching the city, and its offensive is not dependent on the situation in Novosilka or the surrounding villages. A decisive factor will be control over the heights around Kurakhove, which could pose a barrier to Russian supply lines. If Ukrainian forces can hold these positions, the risk of encirclement for Russian troops will decrease, although it will not be possible to completely eliminate the threat.
"A small Ukrainian attack near Velyka Novosilka cannot stop a much larger and likely inevitable Russian attack on Pokrovsk," emphasized Ax.
One of the worst-case scenarios for Ukraine involves a breakthrough of the front line between Bohatyr and Novotroitske, which would lead to the encirclement of Ukrainian troops. The Center for Defense Strategies believes this threat is realistic.
According to forecasts, a siege operation against Pokrovsk will begin in the coming weeks. The outcome of this operation will determine the further development of events in this area. However, changes in weather conditions and a possible decrease in U.S. support could present new challenges for both sides of the conflict.
Source: forbes.