Putin has a deep fear of humiliation. This is why a world governed by Trump's rules is unthinkable for the Kremlin.
The Illusion of Quick Negotiations
In recent weeks, we have all fallen into the trap of the inevitability of effective negotiations. Let’s analyze how realistic this is.
1. The full-scale invasion in 2022 began for two reasons:
- Putin believed that a swift war would help him re-establish himself as the third pole of the world and regain complete police control over the post-Soviet space;
- He assumed that the annexation of Ukraine, followed by the annexation of Belarus and Kazakhstan, would halt the creeping de-Slavicization of Russia.
2. It is crucial to note that NONE of these goals have been achieved to date (in my opinion, they cannot be achieved anymore, but this is not understood in the Kremlin). This is a key point for understanding how Putin will behave during negotiations with Trump.
3. The second important aspect to consider is the shift in Russia's national idea after Emperor Putin's election in March 2024. From this point forward, the main national idea of Russia can be summarized as: "Putin wants to live as long as possible and die in the President's chair of natural causes." All decisions made by Russia are based on this idea. Therefore, when we analyze whether Putin can agree to a freeze in the conflict now, we must answer the question: what is less threatening to his life — peace or the continuation of war? There is no definitive answer, but given the current realities, it seems that continuing the war may be more comfortable for a while — ending the war requires addressing a multitude of social issues that Russia is unprepared for. Of course, these issues won’t disappear, but they may be more palatable to society in the event of an unconditional victory. A peace agreement on Trump's terms would be perceived by many in Russia as an externally imposed victory.
4. It is also worth noting that Putin is terribly afraid of humiliation, and going to negotiations on Trump's terms would be a humiliation for him.
5. In contrast to all this, there is one thing: the economy and the increasing technological dependence of Russia on China, which is becoming a national threat. The standard of living in Russia is declining, regardless of what official statistics and respected Russian researchers, even among very esteemed good Russians, may say. Yes, this decline will not lead to a collapse akin to that of 1989-1991 in the next couple of years, but it will cause profound stagnation in the Russian economy for the next decade. And Putin understands this very well.
6. In fact, the prospects for negotiations depend on two factors: the recognition of economic threats and Putin's own response to the question, "Why is this not humiliation?".
7. For now, it seems to me that Putin is not ready for negotiations. And in the U.S., there is a clear underestimation of the psychiatric factor in Putin's mind. "Overcoming" or "not overcoming" these issues will determine whether negotiations are even possible.
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