Россия intensively prepares for a large-scale offensive on Pokrovsk, and Ukrainian counterattacks will not impede these plans.
According to Forbes analyst David Ax, Ukrainian forces managed to regain some positions near Velyka Novosilka in the southern part of Donetsk Oblast on Sunday, but this area is not critically important for either side. The primary strategic interest for Russia is focused on capturing Pokrovsk, which is located just a few kilometers from the front line.
The Russian army is already advancing towards the city, and its offensive is not contingent on the situation in Novosilka or the surrounding villages. A key factor will be control over the heights around Kurakhove, which could obstruct Russian supply lines. If Ukrainian forces can hold these positions, the risk of encirclement for Russian troops will decrease, although the threat cannot be entirely eliminated.
"A minor Ukrainian attack in the vicinity of Velyka Novosilka cannot halt a much larger and likely inevitable Russian assault on Pokrovsk," Ax emphasized.
One of the worst-case scenarios for Ukraine involves a breakthrough of the front line between Bohatyr and Novotroitske, which would lead to the encirclement of Ukrainian forces. The Center for Defense Strategies believes this threat is realistic.
Forecasts indicate that a siege operation against Pokrovsk will commence in the coming weeks. The outcome of this operation will significantly influence the subsequent developments in this area. However, changes in weather conditions and a potential decrease in U.S. support may introduce new challenges for both sides of the conflict.
Source: forbes.